Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 89508.040353 94411.535762 99311.568055 104572.170889 110056.573064 115602.279729 121630.372445
2025-05-25 81187.312249 88678.601790 96372.265032 104853.888879 113931.169076 123343.990624 133831.926405
2025-06-01 75948.309281 85273.002857 95057.250555 106067.524266 118090.322343 130798.089161 145223.036117
2025-06-08 70923.874511 81524.257316 92851.376914 105820.078152 120220.754267 135684.265990 153507.096364
2025-06-15 67991.943461 79748.789288 92509.000237 107334.676550 124031.808133 142200.155030 163408.019076
2025-06-22 65100.625860 77776.193159 91729.606711 108157.869239 126895.847337 147526.686845 171881.347129
2025-06-29 62161.321041 75553.393228 90491.139516 108295.389139 128841.060316 151707.662695 178979.515210
2025-07-06 59501.393500 73497.750966 89303.217519 108357.906879 130585.143162 155570.277645 185649.771028
2025-07-13 58147.764006 72876.323695 89693.515107 110175.332270 134297.263602 161651.250233 194855.651678
2025-07-20 56770.647846 72143.027965 89880.920980 111693.301758 137615.291398 167253.766439 203510.187353
2025-07-27 55166.525496 71056.622802 89580.109012 112571.756044 140133.702190 171897.211271 211040.884763
2025-08-03 53248.186538 69507.335880 88653.024385 112635.497355 141630.748947 175304.360450 217100.389787
2025-08-10 51509.672838 68138.542582 87916.764805 112917.074163 143397.346251 179064.289838 223646.069413
2025-08-17 49785.857690 66727.749003 87077.770835 113030.060260 144930.670792 182534.903724 229858.526809
2025-08-24 48738.604536 66120.365621 87189.114240 114277.601197 147824.547775 187635.012256 238045.080502
2025-08-31 47019.716545 64600.273142 86112.336669 114005.283020 148816.196495 190412.304901 243418.069484
2025-09-07 46293.692386 64318.667326 86559.350263 115611.964712 152116.330061 195999.395713 252228.798060
2025-09-14 45273.555318 63617.987385 86444.396041 116485.764837 154489.516986 200450.929006 259668.360550
2025-09-21 43980.142589 62517.227766 85781.595737 116631.703580 155926.533043 203737.894814 265679.662230
2025-09-28 42718.244835 61417.110732 85082.713935 116698.072800 157237.480664 206854.555991 271480.867944
2025-10-05 42326.237003 61455.047989 85841.386679 118627.975041 160911.000762 212923.808461 280981.205301
2025-10-12 41821.578839 61321.225931 86360.888404 120239.617268 164179.861191 218501.112947 289900.175211
2025-10-19 41060.030607 60814.616758 86370.543167 121172.168249 166571.275560 222980.914198 297464.691429